US TSYS: LATE FI BOUNCE, DATA PICKS UP SECOND HALF OF WEEK

US TSY SUMMARY: Trading weaker most of session --  Tsys recovering late,

all-in-all another quiet session/modest volume ahead better data risk in second

half of week: ADP Wednesday, NFP Friday, Fed Chair Powell late Friday ahead

media blackout.

- Tsy yld curves flat but off lows; US$ higher/off highs (+.157, 96.839);

equities see-sawing in mildly higher levels (SPX +2.25, 2793.75).

- Ongoing US/China trade headline watch: US Secretary of State Pompeo saying

Pres Trump "will walk" if China trade deal not "perfect" in interview w/Sinclair

media group this morning, follows up with more pragmatic tone: "will keep

banging away at it" if deal "doesn't work". 

- Two-way flow, position squaring ahead midweek data, decent deal-tied flow

-  On tap for Wednesday: ADP private payrolls for February (+213k last, +190k

est); December trade balance (-$57.2B); Mar help-wanted online ratio; Beige Book

for upcoming FOMC.

- Tsy cash/ylds: 2Y 99-28.75 (2.551%), 5Y 99-08.25 (2.533%), 10Y 99-04 (2.724%),

30Y 98-06.5 (3.092%).

US TSY FUTURES CLOSE: After gradual recovery through second half, futures extend

session highs right at the bell, curves still flatter but off earlier lows.

Update:

* 2s10s -1.155, 16.823 (16.619L/18.592H);

* 2s30s -1.385, 53.278 (53.196L/55.395H);

* 5s30s -0.575, 55.409 (54.081L/56.484H);

Current futures levels:

* Jun Ultra bonds up 6/32 at 159-22 (158-27L/159-23H)

* Jun 30-yr Bond futures up 2/32 at 144-15 (143-28L/144-15H)

* Jun 10-yr futures up 1.5/32 at 121-29 (121-20L/121-29.5H)

* Jun 5-yr futures steady at 114-14.25 (114-09.25L/114-15.25H)

* Jun 2-yr futures down 0.62/32 at 105-31.88 (105-30.75L/106-00.88H)

US EURODLR FUTURES CLOSE: Mildly weaker across the strip, off lows to upper half

of narrow range. Current White pack (Mar'19-Dec'19):

* Mar'19 -0.002 at 97.392

* Jun'19 -0.010 at 97.375

* Sep'19 -0.015 at 97.360

* Dec'19 -0.020 at 97.320

* Red pack (Mar'19-Dec'20) -0.025-0.030

* Green pack (Mar'20-Dec'21) -0.020-0.010

* Blue pack (Mar'21-Dec'21) -0.010-0.005

* Gold pack (Mar'22-Dec'22) -0.005

US DOLLAR LIBOR: Latest settles

* O/N +0.0082 to 2.3906% (+0.0058/wk)

* 1 Month -0.0022 to 2.4808% (-0.0010/wk)

* 3 Month -0.0010 to 2.6066% (+0.0081/wk)

* 6 Month +0.0022 to 2.6847% (+0.0027/wk)

* 1 Year +0.0004 to 2.8836% (+0.0046/wk)

US TSYS: REPO REFERENCE RATES: (rate, volume) 

* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 2.38%, $965B

* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 2.36%, $463B

* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 2.36%, $449B

OUTLOOK: *** Data/speaker calendar (prior, estimate):

06-Mar 0700 01-Mar MBA Mortgage Applications (5.3%, --)

06-Mar 0815 Feb ADP private payrolls (213k, --)

06-Mar 0830 Dec trade balance (-$49.3B, -$57.0B)

06-Mar 1000 Mar help-wanted online ratio

06-Mar 1030 01-Mar crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (-8.65m bbl, --)

06-Mar 1200 Clev Fed Pres Mester, moderated Q&A, Columbus

06-Mar 1210 NY Fed Pres Williams, Economic Outlook: The 'New Normal', NY Q&A

06-Mar 1400 Beige Book for upcoming FOMC

06-Mar 1500 Feb Treasury STRIPS Holdings

PIPELINE: Update, $11.6B to price Tuesday; $5B Merck 4-part launched late

Date $MM Issuer/Rating/Desc/Maturity/Yld/Leads; Priced *; Launch #:

03/05 $5B #Merck & Co $750m 5Y +43, $1.75B 10Y +75, $1B 20Y +90, $1.5B 30Y +100

03/05 $1B *Japan Finance Org. for Municipalities (JFM) 5Y +47

03/05 $1.75B #Glencore $1B 5Y +170, $750m 10Y +220

03/05 $1.1B #PNC Bank 2NC1 FRN L+35

03/05 $1B #Lloyds 5Y +140

03/05 $650m #MassMutual Glbl Fndng 7Y +80

03/05 $600m #Toyota Ind 3Y +58

03/05 $500m/upsized #Lazard Group Llc 10Y +175

On tap for week:

03/-- $10B est Qatar inaugural issuance

03/-- $Benchmark Johnson Controls

Eurodollar/Tsy options:

Eurodollar options, Pit/screen:

Block, 1343:00ET, both on offers

* +10,000 Red Jun'20 95 calls, 0.5

* +10,000 Red Dec'20 100 calls, 0.5

Block, 1300:44ET, conditional curve flattener

* +13,000 short Sep 71 puts, 5.0 vs.

* -10,000 Gold Sep'23 71 puts, 9.0

* -8,000 Jul 72/75 call spd 4.5 over short Jul 75/77 call spds

* -10,000 Green Dec 77/Red Dec 82 call spds, 3.0

* +5,000 Sep 71/72 put spds vs. Jun 72 puts, 1.5 net db

* +2,000 short Jun 73/Green Jun 75 straddle strip, 48.5

* -1,000 Blue Dec 73 straddles, 42.5

* 10,000 Sep 70/71 2x1 put spds, 0.0 vs. 97.40/0.05%

* +5,000 short Dec 72 puts, 11.5

* +5,000 Apr 72 puts, 0.5

* +5,000 long Green Jun'21 65/85 call over risk reversals, 4.0

* +2,500 short Jul 76/83 1x3 call spds, 6.0 vs. 97.47/0.22%

* Update, total -5,000 Red Sep 70/80 call over risk reversals, 3.5 vs.

97.50/0.50%

* +5,000 Jun 72/73 strangles, 5.0

* 2,000 Red Sep 70/80 call over risk reversals, 3.5 vs. 97.50/0.50%

* +10,000 short Sep 68/72 put spds, 6.5 vs. 97.45/0.22%

* -5,000 short May 72/75 call over risk reversals, 3.0

* 3,000 Sep 76/77 1x2 call spds, 0.5

Block, 0716:50ET, still offered

* +5,000 Green Mar 77 calls, 0.5

Tsy options, Pit/screen:

* 2,500 TYJ 121/122 strangles, 22/64 vs. 121-21.5

* 1,200 USM 139/140 put spds, 8/64

* 1,450 FVM 113/114.25 2x1 put spds w/ 113.25/114.5 2x1 put spds, 31.5/64 total

* -2,000 TYM 120 puts, 16/64 vs. 121-23/0.20%

* -2,000 TYJ 121.75 puts, 22/64 vs. 121-25/0.49%

* -2,300 TYJ 122.75 calls, 4/64 earlier

* +1,000 TYJ 121 puts, 8/64

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]