US TSYS/SUPPLY
- No Change In Guidance On Future Issuances. Treasury said in Wednesday's quarterly refunding announcement it "doesn't anticipate needing to increase nominal coupon or FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters." Consensus among analysts is the next upsizing would not come until August-November 2025 or even early 2026, but much depends on the fiscal path taken in the next administration and Congress.
- According to the TBAC advisory committee minutes, most dealers still think modest increases might be needed sometime between late-2025 and 2026. Several dealers cited uncertainty about borrowing needs and the expiration of the current debt limit suspension at the beginning of 2025 as possible complicating factors.
- Incremental increases to TIPS auction sizes to maintain a stable share of TIPS as a percentage of total marketable debt outstanding. Nov 10Y steady at USD17B, Dec 5Y up by $1B to $22B, Jan 10Y up by $1B to $20B.
- Market capacity to increase the size of cash management buybacks, and they were supportive of liquidity in the 1M to 2Y nominal coupons sector but the modest initial size of buybacks limited their effect, dealers said. Treasury is expected to do another round in Dec 2024 and April 2025 during high fiscal inflows.
Anticipated Auction Sizes for the November 2024 to January 2025 quarter (in B USD)
214 words