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US TSYS: Tsys Futures Edges Lower As Geopol Tensions Ease

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Tsys futures fell during the US session overnight as the Ukraine/Russia tensions faded slightly  following the missile episode being talked down by US officials, equities hit the week's best levels following Wednesday's Nvidia earnings beat. TU closed -0-02¼ at 102-17¾, while TY closed -0-06 at 109-16.
  • Tsys yields have stalled, with the 10yr note stabilizing near 4.41%, aligned with its 9-day moving average. The lack of key economic data and ongoing political uncertainties are keeping yields range-bound, with potential tests of 4.50% or 4.25% possible. Positioning remains neutral as investors hesitate to take strong directional bets amid uncertainty about the future US administration.
  • Cash tsys have bear-flattened, although the 20yr has struggled post the auction on Wednesday, yields closed flat to 3.5bps higher. The 2yr is +3.4bps at 4.349%, while the 10yr is +1.2bps at 4.422%. The 2s10s flattened 2bps to 7bps.
  • Data had little impact on the market, we had solid initial jobless claims (for payrolls reference week) offset weakness in continuing claims, existing home sales remained subdued as expected, and regional Fed manufacturing surveys (Philly, KC) offered mixed indications on current activity.
  • The multiple Fed speakers brought little new insight on the rates front, including an overnight interview with NY's Williams and, disappointingly, Cleveland Fed's Hammack who had no commentary on current monetary policy.
  • Later today we have preliminary PMIs for November, with the final November UMichigan survey also of note, while the only Fed speaker scheduled is Gov Bowman after hours, but we've already heard from her this week.
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  • Tsys futures fell during the US session overnight as the Ukraine/Russia tensions faded slightly  following the missile episode being talked down by US officials, equities hit the week's best levels following Wednesday's Nvidia earnings beat. TU closed -0-02¼ at 102-17¾, while TY closed -0-06 at 109-16.
  • Tsys yields have stalled, with the 10yr note stabilizing near 4.41%, aligned with its 9-day moving average. The lack of key economic data and ongoing political uncertainties are keeping yields range-bound, with potential tests of 4.50% or 4.25% possible. Positioning remains neutral as investors hesitate to take strong directional bets amid uncertainty about the future US administration.
  • Cash tsys have bear-flattened, although the 20yr has struggled post the auction on Wednesday, yields closed flat to 3.5bps higher. The 2yr is +3.4bps at 4.349%, while the 10yr is +1.2bps at 4.422%. The 2s10s flattened 2bps to 7bps.
  • Data had little impact on the market, we had solid initial jobless claims (for payrolls reference week) offset weakness in continuing claims, existing home sales remained subdued as expected, and regional Fed manufacturing surveys (Philly, KC) offered mixed indications on current activity.
  • The multiple Fed speakers brought little new insight on the rates front, including an overnight interview with NY's Williams and, disappointingly, Cleveland Fed's Hammack who had no commentary on current monetary policy.
  • Later today we have preliminary PMIs for November, with the final November UMichigan survey also of note, while the only Fed speaker scheduled is Gov Bowman after hours, but we've already heard from her this week.