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US TSYS: Tsys Rising Ahead PPI, Fed Speak Includes Powell Eco Outlook

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Treasuries are mixed after running mildly lower for most of the overnight session, two-way positioning evident as futures climb back to early overnight highs ahead of this morning's PPI and weekly jobless claims data at 0830ET.
  • Treasury curves are retaining holding near highs after twisting steeper following yesterday's in-line CPI inflation data spurred return of dovish policy expectations. Core CPI was exactly as expected at 0.35%, and basically unchanged from September (0.35%). However, supercore (core services ex housing) came in on the soft side at 0.31% vs 0.39% expected, 0.40% prior.
    While most of the contributions to PCE come from the CPI report, the bulk of the remainder (including healthcare services, airfares, and portfolio management) will be in this morning's PPI report.
  • Scheduled Fed speakers: the highlight will be Fed Chairman Powell later today (1500ET) as he speaks about his economic outlook from Dallas Fed (text, Q&A). Others include: Fed Gov Kugler moderated mon-pol discussion from Uruguay at 0700ET, Richmond Fed Barkin fireside chat on economy (no text, Q&A) at 0900ET, NY Fed Williams on markets (text, no Q&A) at 1645ET.
  • Currently, Treasury 2s-10s are steady to +/-.25 while Bonds are trading 6-7 higher. TYZ4 trades 109-14 last (+.5) vs. 109-06 low, 10Y yield at 4.4413% (-.0099).
  • Initial technical support for TYZ4 is at 109-06/05 (Intraday low / 76.4% of Apr - Sep bull cycle (cont)). In the event of another in-line to soft PPI read, upside technical resistance is at 110-21 (20-day EMA). The 2s10s curve is .588bp steeper at 16.714.
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  • Treasuries are mixed after running mildly lower for most of the overnight session, two-way positioning evident as futures climb back to early overnight highs ahead of this morning's PPI and weekly jobless claims data at 0830ET.
  • Treasury curves are retaining holding near highs after twisting steeper following yesterday's in-line CPI inflation data spurred return of dovish policy expectations. Core CPI was exactly as expected at 0.35%, and basically unchanged from September (0.35%). However, supercore (core services ex housing) came in on the soft side at 0.31% vs 0.39% expected, 0.40% prior.
    While most of the contributions to PCE come from the CPI report, the bulk of the remainder (including healthcare services, airfares, and portfolio management) will be in this morning's PPI report.
  • Scheduled Fed speakers: the highlight will be Fed Chairman Powell later today (1500ET) as he speaks about his economic outlook from Dallas Fed (text, Q&A). Others include: Fed Gov Kugler moderated mon-pol discussion from Uruguay at 0700ET, Richmond Fed Barkin fireside chat on economy (no text, Q&A) at 0900ET, NY Fed Williams on markets (text, no Q&A) at 1645ET.
  • Currently, Treasury 2s-10s are steady to +/-.25 while Bonds are trading 6-7 higher. TYZ4 trades 109-14 last (+.5) vs. 109-06 low, 10Y yield at 4.4413% (-.0099).
  • Initial technical support for TYZ4 is at 109-06/05 (Intraday low / 76.4% of Apr - Sep bull cycle (cont)). In the event of another in-line to soft PPI read, upside technical resistance is at 110-21 (20-day EMA). The 2s10s curve is .588bp steeper at 16.714.