US Weekly Oil Summary: US Crude Production Seen at 13.2m b/d in 2024

US oil production is projected to average 13.2mb/d in 2024 according to Kpler suggesting a year-on-year increase of 330kb/d.

• US crude and condensate exports in February stood at 4.66mbpd, the highest since March 2023, US Census Bureau data showed. Exports were up from 4.05mbpd in January.
• EIA inventory report also shows these changes for last week: Crude +3,210k Bbl, Median Est. -1,000k Bbl, Gasoline -4,256k vs est. +100k.
• Supertankers signalling the US as their destination increased to its highest level in seven weeks, according to Bloomberg. 35 tankers are US-bound, up three on the week and the highest level since Feb. 16.
• The 313k b/d Pemex Deer Park refinery on the Houston Ship Channel is conducting a multiunit spring turnaround including the crude unit and a hydrocracker, according to Bloomberg.
• The greenback has seen a turbulent week, dictated by mixed data, haven flow stemming from geopolitical risk and even a rare earthquake in New Jersey, which ultimately leaves the USD index just 0.2% lower than where it started.
• ISM services misses at 51.4 (cons 52.8) in March after 52.6.
• The S&P Global US PMIs - Services: Unrevised at 51.7 in March vs the prelim 51.7 and 52.3 in Feb
• US non-farm payrolls: 303k (cons 214k) in March along with a small net upward revision of 22k (-5k in Feb but +27k in Jan).
• Initial jobless claims increased more than expected to a seasonally adjusted 221k (cons 214k) in the week to Mar 30.