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BRAZILIAN REAL: USD/BRL rate holds close to the Friday close, with BRL
recovering firmly from last week's lowest levels as USD/BRL broke above the 4.00
handle on Thursday. The pullback in the USD has helped, with few new headlines
crossing after a quiet weekend in Brazilian politics. USD/BRL trades modestly
higher on the session and largely shrugged off more calls from the Brazilian
President who directly called for the Brazilian central bank to cut rates.
-Short-end implied vols are modestly higher Monday, but still well short of last
week's highs at 14.5 points. A slew of option expiries due to roll-off at
tomorrow's cut could keep the rate pinned from here. $1.5bln is due to expire at
3.90 and $2.32bln is due to roll-off at the 4.00 handle.
-Markets are closed Wednesday for May Day, with focus turning to Manufacturing
PMI and April trade balance data on Thursday, followed by March industrial
production on Friday. The political calendar is light, with little progress
expected on the flagship pension reform bill (Congress is not in session at all