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USD/CNH Back Sub 200-day MA, Onshore Markets Return Tomorrow

CNH

USD/CNH continued to pull back post the Asia close. We got close to 6.9300 in NY trade, but now sit slightly higher (last 6.9340/50). CNH gained just under 0.40% for Tuesday's session and we are now comfortably back below the 200-day MA in USD/CNH terms (just above 6.9550). China onshore markets remain closed today, returning tomorrow from the Labor Day holiday period.

  • Tomorrow delivers the Apr Caixin PMI prints for both manufacturing and services. Recall from the weekend, the official manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.2 (from 51.9). The market expects the Caixin manufacturing PMI to print at 50.0, unchanged from Mar. The Services PMI is forecast at 57.2 versus 57.8 prior.
  • CNH is likely to remain at the whim of broader risk/USD drivers. There is likely to be some focus on how HK/China related equities track. The HS China Enterprise index opened up strongly yesterday, but ended down 0.33% for the session.
  • Lingering doubts around the strength of the recovery and US-China tensions continue to act as headwinds. Note the China Golden Dragon index fell 3.63% in US trade for Tuesday's session, albeit amid a broad equity pullback.
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