USD/IDR Seeing Some Support Sub 15400, But Downtrend Intact

USD/IDR sits up from early session lows, the pair last near 15405 (earlier lows at 15360). We are around 0.20% firmer in IDR terms for the session and back at late September levels. Broader USD sentiment has stabilized somewhat as the session has progressed today, which has likely filtered through to USD/IDR to some degree.

• More broadly, USD/IDR is benefiting from the lower US yield backdrop and increased rate cut expectations for 1H24. The pairs inverse relationship with US real yields remains firm.
• We are sub all key EMAs except for the 200-day (15321). Note on the topside the 100-day sits at 15461.
• Cross asset sentiment is positive, although the 5yr CDS is not making much headway sub 75bps. Local equities are just off recent highs (JCI near 7045).
• In the portfolio flow space, bond inflows are tracking at just over $1bn for November to date, with $422.1mn in the most recent week. Equity flows are around flat.
• On the data front, we have Nov CPI on Friday, along with the PMI. Core CPI is expected to remain steady at 1.9% y/y, while headline is forecast to tick higher to 2.7% y/y (from 2.56%).