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USD/IDR Uptrend Continues, Weaker Commodities Weighing

IDR

USD/IDR has breached the 15000 level, printing fresh highs back to early April. The pair was last at 15005/10, around 0.15% weaker in IDR terms versus yesterday's closing levels. Lows from late March close to 15050 may be the next upside target. Also note the simple 100 day MA is just under 15100, the 50-day sits back near 14958.

  • Higher USD/CNH levels are impacting IDR, like the rest of the region, albeit with IDR's beta lower today compared to the likes of KRW and TWD.
  • The softer commodity price backdrop is weighing, with palm oil prices continuing to make fresh lows (last MYR3400).
  • Weaker equities aren't helping either, with the JCI close to 6600, a break of which would open up mid March lows near 6540. Equity outflows aren't large, but bond inflows have struggled this month.
  • The data calendar is empty until early next week. The FinMin's head of fiscal policy will speak later on the 2024 economic and fiscal policy outlook.
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