MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, February 3

MNI BRIEF: Professional Forecasters Up Inflation Outlook: ECB

MNI BRIEF: China To Fully Reopen Borders With HK and Macau

MNI DATA FORECASTS: RBA, Riksbank In Focus

MNI: US ISM JAN SERVICES COMPOSITE INDEX 55.2

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(RPT)MNI INTERVIEW: BOC In One And Done Zone - Chamber

Rpt- MNI INTERVIEW: BOC Losses May Dent Inflation Fight- Tombe

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USDCAD TECHS

Key Support Remains Exposed

AUDUSD TECHS

Pullback Extends, But Still Looks Corrective in Nature

US TSYS

FED Remains in Play Post-NFP/ISM Data

US TSYS

Implied Vol Buoyed Post-NFP/ISM, Real Vol Delivered

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USD Index Falls An Additional 1%, USDJPY At Fresh Three-Month Lows

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  • Lower core yields are continuing to weigh on the broad greenback with the Japanese Yen a particular beneficiary, extending its intra-day strength to 2% against the USD. Slightly softer than expected US PCE core prices data adds to the most recent narrative that US inflation has peaked, adding further USD pressure.
  • USDJPY now trades below 135.49 which represented the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg. The path of least resistance remains lower with the next targets/supports as we approach Friday’s US jobs data at 134.65 and 133.91, the Aug 17/Aug 18 lows respectively.
  • GBP also outperformed its major peers, rising around 1.7% and briefly rising above 1.23, the best levels seen since June this year.
  • As has been the case throughout the USD selloff, the Canadian dollar has remained on the backfoot, unable to benefit from the sharp move higher in higher beta plays over recent sessions.
  • AUD also underperforms the broader moves in global markets, rising just 0.4%. Potentially a spillover from Wednesday’s weaker CPI data as well as weaker CAPEX figures overnight. Furthermore, AUDNZD clearing most recent support around 1.0750 has prompted some notable weakness for the cross.
  • All focus turns to the US jobs report, where the Bloomberg median sees nonfarm payrolls rising 200k in November. With a 50bp hike almost cemented for December, the report may shine a light on the Fed’s potential path heading into 2023.
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  • Lower core yields are continuing to weigh on the broad greenback with the Japanese Yen a particular beneficiary, extending its intra-day strength to 2% against the USD. Slightly softer than expected US PCE core prices data adds to the most recent narrative that US inflation has peaked, adding further USD pressure.
  • USDJPY now trades below 135.49 which represented the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg. The path of least resistance remains lower with the next targets/supports as we approach Friday’s US jobs data at 134.65 and 133.91, the Aug 17/Aug 18 lows respectively.
  • GBP also outperformed its major peers, rising around 1.7% and briefly rising above 1.23, the best levels seen since June this year.
  • As has been the case throughout the USD selloff, the Canadian dollar has remained on the backfoot, unable to benefit from the sharp move higher in higher beta plays over recent sessions.
  • AUD also underperforms the broader moves in global markets, rising just 0.4%. Potentially a spillover from Wednesday’s weaker CPI data as well as weaker CAPEX figures overnight. Furthermore, AUDNZD clearing most recent support around 1.0750 has prompted some notable weakness for the cross.
  • All focus turns to the US jobs report, where the Bloomberg median sees nonfarm payrolls rising 200k in November. With a 50bp hike almost cemented for December, the report may shine a light on the Fed’s potential path heading into 2023.