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USD/INR Fails to Break Below 200-DMA, Citi Take Profit on Short Position

INR
  • Spot USD/INR bounced off the 200-DMA, and is now up 0.12%, having briefly tested the average earlier in the session. Note that this level has not been pierced below since July 2023. Gains in the pair accelerated during early European hours, with 1-month USD/INR forward outrights trading near the 83.00 handle at typing.
  • Citi note that their EM traders took profit on a short USD/INR position, as spot has failed to break below the 82.90 level twice previously this year. For an extension lower towards 82.50, their traders continue to think that we need dovish repricing of dollar rates and fiscal year-end flows to start hitting the market.
  • Later today, the RBI will release weekly FX and bank credit data. Next week, Q4-2023 GDP data is the highlight on the local slate. As per the median estimate of the Bloomberg survey of analysts, growth likely moderated from +7.6% y/y prior to +6.5%.
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