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Ending QE Early Would Be Hawkish... Right?


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INDIA: USD/INR looks to finish the session at the highest level since early
March having spilled comfortably above the 70 handle on the back of greenback
strength and a weaker outlook for EMFX since the extended Easter weekend. Should
USD/INR close today above the 50-dma at 69.9220, that would mark the first close
above this level since March 1st and would set markets on course for a test of
the 200-dma at 70.7019.
-INR weakness follows the most recent instalment of the Reserve Bank of India's
currency swap operation earlier in the week, injecting $5bln via swaps at a
cutoff rate that materially exceeded expectations. This proved to support the
INR early Tuesday, but the support has faded well ahead of the close of the
-INR weakness is running in tandem with equities and bonds, as stock markets
retreat from record highs printed in early April. NIFTY index just shy of 2%
below record highs. Similar price action is seen in the Indian sovereign curve,
which bear-steepened Thursday. The moves come as domestic funds remain net
sellers of Indian assets, as per NSE data released yesterday.
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