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USD/JPY 2023 Highs Within Sight, As US Data Beats Propel Broad Dollar Gains


USD/JPY is back close too early 2023 highs. We currently track around 134.10/15, with yen losing around 0.70% for Wednesday's session. Highs in NY came in at 134.36. Upside targets rest at 134.77, the Jan 6 high, which also coincides with the 100-day EMA. Yesterday USD/JPY broke above the 200-day EMA.

  • Yen wasn't the worst performer in the G10 space (with AUD, GBP and NZD all off by more). Still, USD/JPY continues to follow the underlying US yield momentum story higher.
  • US data was better than expected for Wednesday, particularly in terms of the retail sales beat, which propelled the Citi US data surprise index to fresh highs going back to May last year.
  • The US-JP 10yr swap spread is now back to +268bps, highs back to late last year.
  • On the data front, Jan trade data is out today. The market expects export growth at -1.7% y/y, from 11.5% prior. The adjusted trade deficit is forecast at -2400bn yen, wider than Dec. Also out is Dec core machinery orders and weekly foreign investment flow data.

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