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Gold Inching Toward Bull Trigger

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  • USD/JPY post FOMC rally extended to Y110.82 in Asia Thursday, only to meet reported Japanese exporter supply, which prevented a retest on the YTD high of Y110.97(Mar31), as well as respecting its 1.0% 10-dma envelope top.
  • Rate settled back between Y110.50/80 through the European morning before the corrective pullback picked up some legs in NY, pressing back to Y110.17 before closing the day at Y110.24.
  • Early Asia saw rate nudge to Y110.33 before it turned lower, retested Thursday's low (touched Y110.16) before stronger sales emerged into Europe which has seen it pressed to Y110.00, holding heavy at writing.
  • Support seen into Y110.00(50% Y109.19-110.82), a break to expose Y109.81(Jun16 low, 61.8% 109.19-110.82). Resistance now seen at Y110.50, but needs to break Y110.64(76.4% Y110.82-04) to bring the Y110.82/97 area back into play.
  • MNI Techs: USDJPY traded higher Wednesday, but faded through the Thursday session. The outlook remains bullish. The break of 110.33, Jun 4 high negates recent bearish threats and instead confirms a resumption of the uptrend since Apr 23. Attention is on 110.89, 1.0% 10-dma envelope and key resistance at 110.97, the year high print on Mar 31. A break of 110.97 would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. Support is at 109.81, Wednesday's low.