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USD/JPY Just Off Recent Highs, October PPI Out Today

JPY

USD/JPY is tracking near 151.50 in recent dealings, down slightly from Friday session highs around 151.60. Yen modestly underperformed the other majors for Friday's session. Higher US yields and a better US equity finish to the week, weighed on the yen.

  • In terms of technicals, we are very close to the Oct 31 high at 151.71, which is also a bull trigger. 149.21, the Nov 3 low, is a support point, but the 50-day EMA at 148.74 is the key level on the downside.
  • So close to recent highs likely raises intervention risks, although rhetoric on this front wasn't that strong late last week.
  • US-JP yield differentials are up from recent lows (keeping USD/JPY dips supported), as Fed officials debate whether they have done enough to contain inflation. On Friday, U. of Mich. 1yr ahead inflation expectations ticked higher.
  • For Japan, the data calendar has Oct PPI out today, 0.9% y/y is projected versus 2.0% prior.
  • The government is considering tying a 5% or higher wage increase that companies give to tax breaks which companies can also receive, per Sankei (see this BBG link).
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