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USD/JPY Unable To Close Above 149.00, Machine Orders Up Shortly

JPY

USD/JPY fell 1.11% on Friday, erasing the gains made after US retail sales and initial jobless claims printed better than market expectations, the pair finished the week up 0.64%.

  • The USD/JPY has edged a touch higher this morning up 0.30% to 148.03, although well within recent ranges 146.50 to 149.50.
  • Shortly we have machine orders, which are expected to rise by 1.1% in June, following a 3.2% drop in May. If orders exceed expectations, it could strengthen the yen & boost business confidence.
  • Goldman Sachs reduced the likelihood of a US recession in the next year to 20% from 25% over the weekend, citing last week's retail sales and jobless claims data.
  • All eyes will be on Jackson hole later this week which starts on Aug 22nd, with J Powell speaking at 10:00am ET on Friday.
  • Looking at technical levels, the bearish condition remains intact. Note that the downtrend remains oversold, and the latest recovery is allowing this set-up to unwind. Resistance to watch is 149.60, the 20-day EMA. Initial support is 145.44 (Aug 8 lows)
  • Apart from machine order up shortly, it is a quiet session. Japan will sell 12m bills at 13:30 AEST

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