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USD/JPY Under 150.00 Post Hawkish Ueda, Weaker US Yields

JPY

USD/JPY tracks just under 150.00 in early Thursday dealings. In late NY trade we got as low as 149.61, fresh lows back to mid March of this year. Yen was 1.86% stronger for Wednesday's session, comfortably the best G10 FX performer. Broader USD sentiment was softer (the BBDXY down 0.56%).

  • Further renewed weakness would place the focus on 148.54, a Fibonacci retracement point. 151.94, the July 25 low, is likely upside resistance.
  • USD/JPY dipped late in Wednesday Asia Pac trade as BoJ Governor Ueda gave a hawkish press conference, leaving the door open for further rate hikes, albeit without specifying the timing.
  • We saw some USD support ahead of the month-end FX fixing. While the pair popped to 151.26 as the Fed failed to adjust its forward guidance, however, a dovish leaning Powell hinting that a September cut will likely be on the table prompted renewed weakness. US Tsy yields finished 10-12bps lower across the 2-20yr benchmarks.
  • Late headlines from the New York Times claiming Iran has ordered a retaliatory attack on Israel may have exacerbated the price action as well, taking the gloss off surging equity trends (the SPX still ended up 1.58%).
  • On the data front today we have the final PMI reading for July on the manufacturing PMI. Weekly offshore investment flows are also out. Option expiries rest at 151.00 and 154.00-05 today (for NY cut later).

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