USD Modestly Softer, IDR Struggles To Find Traction

USD/Asia pairs are mostly lower, but away from lows for the session (IDR has been the exception, weakening modestly). Positive regional equity market sentiment, for the most part, has helped, while the USD has slipped modestly against most of the majors. The data calendar is light at the start of next week. Note that China PMIs print on Tuesday.

• USD/CNH sits lower, last near 7.3200, but remains well within recent ranges. Onshore equities continue to recover (+1% for the CSI 300), while industrial profit growth slowed in September but remains above +10% y/y. Foreign Minister Wang is scheduled to meet US President Biden later today.
• Spot USD/HKD has drifted back sub 7.8200, in line with some broader USD softness in Friday dealings. Some signs of stability in Hong Kong equities are also likely helping at the margin. The pair was last near 7.8195, with earlier lows close to 7.8180. We have spent most of the week drifting lower, although mid October lows near 7.8160 haven't been tested yet. On the upside, all the key EMAs rest between 7.8240 and 7.8300. The 20-day, near 7.8240, has presented a cap in recent sessions.
• The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) sits little changed this morning and remains well within recent ranges. The measure is ~0.5% below the top of the band. USD/SGD fell ~0.1% yesterday as broader USD trends dominated flows, the pair is below the $1.37 handle and testing the 20-Day EMA ($1.3685) today. The final read of Q3 URA Home Prices crossed this morning rising 0.8% Q/Q, ticking high from the prior 0.5% Q/Q.
• The Ringgit has firmed on Friday as onshore participants digest lower US Tsy Yields on Thursday. USD/MYR is ~0.3% lower and last prints at 4.7720/60. Looking ahead, the next release of note is next Wednesday's S&P Global October Mfg PMI. Next Thursday we have the latest BNM monetary policy decision, no change is expected.
• On Thursday USD/INR rose ~0.1% and finished dealing above the 20-Day EMA (83.1916) as broader USD flows dominated yesterday's dealing. At the open on Friday the pair sits in line with yesterday's closing levels at 83.22/23. Looking ahead, the next release of note is on 31 Oct which is Sep Fiscal Deficit and Eight Infrastructure Industry Survey. Next week also seeing S&P Global Mfg & Services PMI cross.
• USD/IDR hasn't enjoyed the softer USD sentiment seen elsewhere in Asian FX and in the majors so far in Friday trade. The pair was last near 15945, around 0.15% weaker in IDR terms and close to Monday highs (above 15960), which came before intervention headlines crossed. A BI spokesperson said earlier that an off cycle tightening by the central bank is unlikely (albeit not a 0% probability, see this BBG link). The next central bank meeting is on the 23rd Of November.
• USD/PHP is tracking lower in the first part of Friday dealing, last near 56.88. Note we closed yesterday at 56.97, so very close to the 57.00 resistance point. There was little positive follow through for the local currency follow yesterday's off-cycle rate hike by the central bank. A further BSP hike is likely given the hawkish rhetoric BSP Governor delivered ("feel a little bit behind", when they decided not to hike in September). The 2024 inflation forecast was also revised higher by the central bank.