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USD/MXN Volatile as Markets Assess Banxico's 3-2 Split & Jackson Hole Approaches

MEXICO
  • USD/MXN trades +0.38% higher this morning, broadly in line with a firmer BBDXY and selling pressure on the oil complex after three days of robust gains.
  • The cross traded choppily throughout yesterday's session, paring an attempt at the 20.35 level to close marginally higher on the day. Technicals remain biased to the upside following last week's breakout through the 200dma, but must move through 20.50 to open up the June highs.
  • Unemployment data and the Banxico minutes will be the dominant focus today with markets looking for clarity on the 3-2 panel split over the prior rate decision – sparking uncertainty over the near-term policy trajectory.
  • Mixed remarks regarding both transitory shocks and upside risks to the inflation outlook will also be a vital focal point.
  • However, hawkish sentiment is expected to be the dominant theme amid elevated uncertainty.
  • Beyond the minutes, MXN should be driven by pre-Jackson Hole sentiment – although expectations are aligning with ISM and NFP data as having a more prominent effect on price action in the near-term for EM FX.
  • Intraday Sup1: 20.2469, Sup2: 20.2085, Res1: 30.3486, Res2: 20.4285
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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