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USD Pares Initial Losses, JPY Remains On Front Foot

FOREX
  • Despite some initial moderate weakness to start the week, the USD index has traded on a firmer footing across the US session as participants returned following the shortened Thanksgiving week. Second tier US data did little to spark any volatility in currency markets and the DXY remains close to unchanged as we approach the APAC crossover.
  • The Japanese Yen is stronger and although USDJPY is off its intraday lows of 148.66, the pair remains back below the 149 handle. The bullish price pattern on Nov 21 - a dragonfly doji candle - signals a potential reversal and the end of the recent corrective move down. If correct, it suggests scope for a rally that would expose key resistance at 151.95, the Oct 21 2022 high. For bears, a break of 147.15, the Nov 21 low, would cancel the reversal pattern and instead open 146.38, trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low.
  • AUD has consolidated last week's rally, with the pair benefiting from the first close above the 200-dma since July (0.6584). Resultingly, AUD/USD has touched the best level since Aug10 at 0.6614 on Monday, closely matching touted resistance at the Oct 8 high. Price action reinforces the bullish theme and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term.
  • Australia retail sales data and the participation of RBA Governor Bullock in a panel discussion highlight Tuesday’s APAC docket. US consumer confidence and Richmond manufacturing will precede a slew of Fed speakers are scheduled during the US session.
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