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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
PHP
USD/PHP is back to fresh lows going back to mid Feb. The pair was last around 54.70. This puts us under the simple 50-day MA, which is around the 54.84 level. Dips below this support point have not been sustained over the past month, see the chart below. A sustained break sub this level will have the market targeting a move towards the 54.30/40 region.
- Incremental news flow has been positive for PHP today, with BSP Governor Medalla stating that Philippine Banks have no reported exposure to Credit Suisse.
- Next week the BSP meets, with a 25bps hike expected, as market expectations have adjusted lower in light of global developments.
- At the margin this is likely to be helping Philippines equities, with the main index up 0.80% today, although we are coming from depressed levels and remain sub the simple 200-day MA. Recent PHP trends have been more resilient to equity market weakness, like elsewhere in SEA (e.g. Thailand).
- The Jan budget balance also showed a much improved underlying fiscal position, (PHP45.75bn in surplus), in large part due to revenues +25% y/y.
Fig 1: USD/PHP Breaking Down Through 50-day MA
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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