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USD/PHP Drifts Higher, BSP Likely On Hold Next Week

PHP

Spot USD/PHP is probing higher in early dealings today. The pair last near 56.83, against earlier highs of 56.875. We aren't too far away from previous highs around the 57.00 level, which is likely to remain a resistance point. Recent lows just under 56.60 have been supported.

  • Commentary from BSP Governor Remolona yesterday hinted strongly at BSP holding rates steady next week at 6.25% (policy decision next Thursday). This is the consensus as well, although Bloomberg's survey only carries 6 responses at this stage.
  • The BSP Governor stated if there are no further supply shocks beyond the one witnessed in August (driven by a spike in rice/food prices), it won't justify an easing but equally doesn't mean rates will rise either.
  • The BSP has stated it stands ready to raise rates again if needed. It won't want to sound too dovish with USD/PHP close to recent highs.
  • A more dovish ECB has helped temper one part of the core yield backdrop, but resilient US data is helping keep real US yields elevated (10yr at 1.95%), which is arguably a more important driver for PHP.
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