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USD/PHP Off Multi Week Highs Ahead of BSP

PHP

USD/PHP is down from early session highs near 55.40, currently back at 55.15/20 unchanged for the session. The 1 month NDF is down from closing NY levels, last around 55.15/20, 0.30% stronger for the session in PHP terms. This is in line with softer USD sentiment elsewhere in the USD/Asia space, as the market unwinds some of the strong gains from yesterday.

  • Coming up is the BSP decision, a hike is widely expected, although the market is close to split between a 25bps or 50bps move, see our full preview here.
  • We see risks as tilted more towards a 50bps hikes given known inflation outcomes in the Philippines and the shift in the US outlook over recent weeks. A 25bps move may weigh on PHP at the margins, note the 100-day EMA is at 55.65.
  • We currently track very close to the 50 and 200 day EMAs, both around 55.20. On the downside the 20 day EMA continues to drift higher, last at 54.71.
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