USD/PHP Spikes Back Above 56.00, Trade Figures This Friday

USD/PHP has rallied in the first part of trade today, last at 56.15, 0.30% weaker in PHP terms versus Friday closing levels. The 1 month NDF is up 0.50%, last in the 56.15/20 region. This puts us to fresh highs for the past week, although earlier Jan highs rest higher at the 56.40 level for spot.

• There doesn't appear to be a direct catalyst for fresh PHP weakness. Correlations with broader USD moves aren't usually strong at the best of times for PHP. Local equity sentiment has been weaker in the past week but has stabilized today (PCOMP up 0.60%). Offshore investors were net sellers of local equities late last week as well.
• More elevated energy prices aren't helping either, although PHP trends haven't been very correlated with oil prices of late.
• The BSP said earlier this year, there would likely be less FX intervention, so this again could be a factor. Still, 1 month implied USD/PHP vol is still range bound, last at 6.21%, up from recent lows.
• BSP Governor Remolona stated over the weekend that cuts in H1 this year would be unlikely, which is largely reiterating recent rhetoric (BBG).
• On the data front, Dec trade figures print on Friday.