USD/PHP Tests 200-day MA Resistance, CPI on Friday Main Data Focus Point

USD/PPHP sits off earlier session highs, the pair last at 55.72, still 0.10% weaker in PHP terms versus Tuesday closing levels. Earlier highs in the pair were at 55.81, amid catch up to broad based USD gains. The simple 200-day MA comes in near 55.80, so that be acting as a resistance point.

• Through much of Dec, the 200-day MA didn't act as a key level though, so may not be a critical technical focus point. Firmer selling interest was evident on moves above 56.00. On the downside, recent lows rest in the 55.30/35 region.
• The next major data focus point will be Friday's CPI print for Dec. The market looks for a 3.9% y/y outcome, versus 4.1% prior. This would put us back into the 2-4% BSP inflation target range.
• Late last year the BSP pit a forecast range of 3.6-4.4% for the Dec print.
• In the cross asset space, PHP looks too weak relative to strength of local equities, but upside in USD/PHP is consistent with US real yields finding a base since the end of 2023.