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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FOREX
The USD was offered in early trade, particularly against both EUR and CNH. EUR/USD got close to 1.01, with the 100-day simple MA coming in at 1.0089, but we couldn't hold these levels, last back to 1.0070. USD/CNH got sub 7.1700, but has rebounded aggressively, back into a 7.2350/00 range, +0.70% above NY closing levels.
- This has helped the BBDXY stabilize, although we remain below the 50-day MA (1320.03), with the index last at 1318.45, see the chart below. Interestingly, the recent correction lower in this index, is getting close to the magnitude of other corrections, seen in recent months.
- In terms of cross-asset signals, equities have been mixed, with US futures higher, but the China equity rebound has stalled. US yields are slightly above NY closing levels (4.02% for the 10yr).
- AUD/USD has struggled to hold gains above 0.6500, even with calls from local banks for a 50bps move from the RBA next week. Futures pricing is slightly above 25bps priced in for next week.
- NZD has outperformed slightly, last near 0.5850, although unable to push above 0.5855 (50-day EMA). RBNZ Governor stated earlier that the RBNZ will fulfill its inflation mandate, even if the unemployment rate moves higher.
- Coming up, the main focus will be the ECB decision (+75bps expected). In the US, advance Q3 GDP data will provide another key input to the ongoing debate on Fed tightening trajectory.
Fig 1: BBDXY Correction Approach Previous 2022 Pullbacks In Terms Of Magnitude
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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