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USD/RUB Backs Away From 75.00 as Oil Markets Price Out Expectations for Larger SPR Releases

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades -0.05% lower this morning, pulling back slightly from yesterday's attempt at the 75.00 handle.
  • The cross snapped its 3-day run higher yesterday as oil prices recovered following confirmations that countries would release strategic reserves (~70-80m bbls) into the market – which had been broadly priced in over the prior sessions at around 100m barrels.
  • Brent trades slightly firmer this morning, brushing off yesterday's API inventory build (+2.3m vs -500k exp).
  • However, the battle against OPEC creates scope for volatile oil markets in the coming months. Geopolitical risks continue to simmer following US threats of NS2 sanctions.
  • Headline risks surrounding the Ukraine crisis continue, with markets hoping for an announcement on a possible Biden-Putin summit in the coming weeks or early 2022 to help thaw icy relations.
  • Today's FOMC minutes will be the key focal point for markets, with analysts looking for clues on the taper/rates lift-off timeline.
  • 75.00-75.30 seems to be decent resistance and may see fading pressure on retests of the level.
  • Intraday Sup1: 73.6763, Sup2: 73.1560, Res1: 74.7558, Res2: 75.2853
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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