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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - Week Ahead 2-8 December
USD/RUB Breaks 72, Hawkish Bets Boosted by Demand-Driven CPI Pressures
- USD/RUB opens lower in line with EM peers TRY & ZAR as the greenback continues to slide in early trading.
- Oil markets providing little help to RUB, trading mostly flat just above $72.50.
- Focus today on the CBR, expected to deliver a +50bp hike to quell spiralling demand-driven inflationary pressures.
- Bloomberg consensus has shifted to +50bp from +25bp earlier in the week, reinforcing market expectations for a more hawkish meeting.
- Nabiullina is likely to reiterate concerns about more persistent pro-inflationary forces, alluding to more hikes in the pipeline should price pressures fail to moderate into 4Q21 in line with forecasts.
- Risks to a larger +75bp hike cannot be fully discounted, given the CBR's recent predilection towards above-consensus hikes.
- Hawkish rhetoric continues to bolster demand for RUB, but markets may start getting jumpy early next week ahead of the Biden-Putin meeting.
- Intraday Sup1: 71.4168, Sup2: 71.00, Res1: 70.0413, Res2: 72.3409
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.