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- USD/RUB opens lower in line with EM peers TRY & ZAR as the greenback continues to slide in early trading.
- Oil markets providing little help to RUB, trading mostly flat just above $72.50.
- Focus today on the CBR, expected to deliver a +50bp hike to quell spiralling demand-driven inflationary pressures.
- Bloomberg consensus has shifted to +50bp from +25bp earlier in the week, reinforcing market expectations for a more hawkish meeting.
- Nabiullina is likely to reiterate concerns about more persistent pro-inflationary forces, alluding to more hikes in the pipeline should price pressures fail to moderate into 4Q21 in line with forecasts.
- Risks to a larger +75bp hike cannot be fully discounted, given the CBR's recent predilection towards above-consensus hikes.
- Hawkish rhetoric continues to bolster demand for RUB, but markets may start getting jumpy early next week ahead of the Biden-Putin meeting.
- Intraday Sup1: 71.4168, Sup2: 71.00, Res1: 70.0413, Res2: 72.3409