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USD/RUB: Hawkish Fed Erases Post-Meeting Optimism from Geneva Summit, 72.65 Level Eyed

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB opens lower this morning, having moved sharply higher in the wake of the hawkish surprise from the FOMC.
  • This erased the moderately RUB positive reaction to the Biden-Putin meeting, which followed our base case scenario of a firm, but not overtly aggressive approach from Biden – opting to focus on areas with scope for improvement, rather than attack Russia's red lines on Ukraine & Navalny.
  • With a positive platform for dialogue and more effective communications now having been established, the focus shifts to inter-agency level talks.
  • Post-FOMC reaction should dominate market sentiment today, with risk-off and USD strength being the flavour thus far.
  • Oil markets slipped back into the red on the back of a firmer USD, with Brent retesting the $74/bbl handle.
  • Attention is now on the 72.6566 resistance level corresponding to the major support break made last week, with price action moving out of oversold territory on the daily chart.
  • A move above here opens up 73.00 to the topside and 73.50 above.
  • However, markets still remain bullish on RUB over the medium-term, given firm oil prices and hawkish posturing from the CBR.
  • Intraday Sup1: 72.3409, Sup2: 72.0413, Res1: 72.6566, Res2: 72.9534
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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