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USD/RUB: Low Bar For Progress in US-Russia Ties May Buoy RUB Sentiment

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB opens slightly lower this morning as higher oil prices offset a slightly firmer BBDXY.
  • A surprise drop in API crude inventories (-4.3m bbls vs -3.4m exp) buoyed oil markets, with traders looking through demand-side concerns emanating from rising Delta variant cases.
  • $75/bbl remains a key resistance point and will need to be surpassed to rack up more gains in Brent.
  • Domestically, the focus will be on US-Russia strategic stability talks. Recent remarks from Russia and a well-timed draft document for countering Cybersecurity reflect a more cooperative angle going into the meeting.
  • Meanwhile, aggressive comments from Biden overnight indicate a more tentative stance from the US.
  • With relations so frayed, the bar for success at the meeting is relatively low with any form of commitment to further dialogue/cooperation likely to be RUB positive.
  • However, although unlikely, a collapse in talks or no progress on establishing a dialogue would see a rebuilding of geopolitical risk premia in Russian assets.
  • Beyond this, we have the FOMC meeting and a swathe of data prints this afternoon with June high-frequency data seemingly moderating quite substantially (should expectations prove accurate).
  • Intraday Sup1: 73.5342, Sup2: 73.2181, Res1: 73.7458, Res2: 74.2486
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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