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USD/RUB Opens Lower, But Still Within Weekly Range as Oil Weakness Weighs

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB gaps lower at the open this morning in line with early weakness in the BBDXY and oil markets trading +0.77% in the green.
  • USD/RUB remained relatively more composed in yesterday's session than the likes of ZAR in terms of wild whipsaws, but still ended +0.47% higher on the day.
  • Oil remains fragile at these current levels, keeping RUB choppy in the near-term as the demand-side outlook becomes cloudier and technical indicators on Brent become more bearish.
  • Focus remains on July's $66.91 low. Domestic focus will be on PPI & weekly CPI numbers for signs of moderating in pro-inflationary pressures in line with CBR forecasts with lower prints likely to bolster demand for RUB assets in the near-term amid the CBR's current tightening cycle.
  • 3x6 FRA-Mosprime spreads have narrowed substantially since last week's weekly CPI print – now at +30bp from +54bp.
  • Shortly after we receive the FOMC minutes, which will likely be the primary price action driver for today – with a hawkish tilt expected to see the greenback biased higher with scope for a second session of higher volatility in EM FX.
  • Intraday Sup1: 73.3934, Sup2: 73.2181, Res1: 73.5731, Res2: 73.7458

  • 3x6 FRA-Mosprime Spreads


MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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