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Free AccessUSD/RUB Pauses For Breath at 74.50 as Major Military Drills Begin
- USD/RUB trades +0.04% higher this morning, diverging slightly from early selling pressure in the BBDXY.
- The cross closed -0.39% lower yesterday, pulling back from 74.50 support towards the end of the session.
- Focus is on Lavrov-Truss talks and Normandy format discussions over the Minsk process for progress on Ukraine after Macron’s meetings seemingly delivered a renewed sense of calm.
- Nevertheless, Russian and Ukrainian military drills kick off today and will be monitored closely by all sides.
- RUB has recovered 7.08% since the peak in USD/RUB at 80.4115, supported by a thawing in tensions and robust underlying macro fundamentals.
- Market consensus remains for a 100bp hike at tomorrow’s CBR, but a case can be made for a smaller +75bp hike if the CBR has sufficient confidence in its forecasts for a near-term peak in CPI on base effects in Feb.
- Intraday Sup1: 74.504, Sup2: 74.266, Res1: 75.148, Res2: 75.5827
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.