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Free AccessUSD/RUB: Robust Oil Gains Temper Geopolitical Uncertainty
- USD/RUB trades -0.12% lower this morning, in line with early selling pressure on the BBDXY and firmer oil markets (+1.10%).
- The cross closed Friday's session -0.10% lower and -0.21% for the week, maintaining a range from 72.50-73.63 with sellers emerging around the 100 & 50dmas above.
- Oil markets continue to bolster RUB demands, despite sanctions risks with Brent now approaching the $80 handle.
- Focus will be on inventory data to gauge the depth of the supply crunch after storms cut production in the Gulf.
- On the sanctions front, the Kremlin has been relatively subdued and is clearly awaiting more progress before delivering threats. The geopolitical risk premium has risen slightly, but is not flashing red as of yet.
- Although Russia has decidedly robust sanctions buffers (high FX reserves, relatively low foreign holdings of OFZs and low exposure to USD debt), the geopolitical risk premium has scope to grow from currently low levels and will be monitored closely this week.
- Moreover, we have a busy week ahead on the data front, with GDP, current account, unemployment, real wages, PMI and retail sales number to parse towards the end of the week.
- USD/RUB momentum remains to the downside, but will need to overcome 72.50 support to take the next leg lower.
- RUB still remains among the most favoured EM currencies going into year-end. Intraday Sup1: 72.5556, Sup2: 72.3891, Res1: 72.8620, Res2: 73.00
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.