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USD/RUB Tentative as Markets Weigh Geopolitical Risks, Oil Remains Bullish

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB opens lower on the back of early weakness in the BBDXY and sustained strength in oil markets with brent trading around the $74.50/bbl mark.
  • Buoyant demand expectations continue to drive brent higher with sell-side analysts eyeing $80/bbl this summer which continues to support RUB. Focus today will be on the Biden-Putin meeting, where we may see both sides voice grievances, but not look to spark any major geopolitical frictions.
  • Pressure continues to mount on Biden to take a hardline stance on Russia RE cyberattacks and human rights, but we fail to see the utility in collapsing talks and exacerbating tensions for the sake of boosting domestic approval – this doesn't seem to be Biden's style with Russia so far.
  • Hence, the carrot and stick approach with threats of tightening pre-existing sanctions structures should Russia not change its behaviour may be the happy medium Biden is after.
  • Markets may trade choppily around the meeting, given split expectations and potential headline risks RE sanctions threats from the US and the possibility of pre-emptive de-risking from markets into the meeting.
  • Beyond this meeting we have the FOMC, which will be a key driver of the USD-side of the equation.
  • Intraday Sup1: 71.7012, Sup2: 71.5542, Res1: 72.3409, Res2: 72.7509
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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