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USD Scales Back Yield-Driven Appreciation, But USDJPY Remains In Focus

FOREX
  • The USD index has ultimately reversed a large part of its rise seen through the first half of the US session in moves attributed to a marching higher in US yields, with the 10Y real touching fresh highs since 2009 to push the nominal yield to its highest since 2007 with a clearance of 4.35%. An only small paring of these FI losses has seen a surprisingly large paring in the DXY for -0.1% on the day, coinciding with a second half recovery in US equities.
  • Higher yields have however underpinned the bounce for USDJPY. It may be off a session high of 146.404 but still trades at 146.13 (+0.5%), firmly re-establishing itself above the 146 handle.
  • Last week's price action resulted in a break of 145.07, the Jun 30 high, which confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition, highlighting current positive sentiment. The initial target on the topside will be 146.56, last week's high and a resistance that dates back to November last year. Above here, the focus will shift to 147.49, a Fibonacci projection.
  • Reports continue to speculate over potential BOJ intervention, however, there has no been escalation of the usual rhetoric from MOF officials. Indeed, JPMorgan stated that Japan's threshold for currency market intervention on the yen is likely to be around 150 per dollar. Analysts noted that the fundamental conditions in the Japanese economy had been improving since the last time the MoF intervened to lift the yen in September and October last year.

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