USD/THB Back Above 36.00, Little Impact From Q3 GDP Beat

USD/THB is back above 36.00 (last 36.04), around +0.75% above closing levels from last week. The pair appears to have formed a base between 35.50/36.00 over the past week, although more broadly we are comfortably stuck between the simple 100-day (36.68) and 200-day (35.188) MAs.

• The pair edged away from highs post a better than expected Q3 GDP print, +1.2% q/q, versus 0.8% forecast, although y/y growth came in as expected (4.5%, from 2.5% in Q2). However, there has been little follow through.
• Baht sentiment is being weighed by broader USD/Asia gains, as China covid concerns propel USD/CNH higher and weigh on broader risk appetite.
• The authorities expect 25mn arrivals next year, up from an expected 10.2mn this year. This underpins a return to a current account surplus (1.1% of GDP forecast for 2023). The baht is likely to remain sensitive to China's CZS, particularly as outbound tourism flows, will be important for the tourism recovery outlook in Thailand.
• Over the weekend Thailand and Saudi Arabia agreed to cooperate in energy and tourism, as gradual diplomatic relations are restored between the two countries.