USD/THB Wedged Between Simple 50 & 100 Day MAs Ahead Of BoT Meeting

USD/THB is within recent ranges ahead of the upcoming BoT decision later. The pair last tracked around the 34.30/35 region, slightly weaker in baht terms for the session, but in line with regional trends. The pair is wedged between the simple 50-day MA, which is close to 34.00, while on the topside, the 100-day MA is at 34.52. Some EMAs sit slightly higher, relative to current spot, the 50-day near 34.35, the 20-day near 34.39.

• If the BoT delivers a hike as expected, (19 out of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg look for a 25bps hike, the remainder forecast no change), the focus is likely to rest on BoT's language in the statement. Many don't expect a further hike at the next meeting in May, see our full preview here.
• We get Feb manufacturing IP prior to the BoT decision, with the market consensus at -2.0% y/y (-4.35% prior). Feb customs trade data is also due out between now and the end of the month.
• USD/THB implied vols are a touch higher in the 1 week space, versus recent lows, last at 10.295%. In the 1 month space, the trend is more benign, sticking close to recent lows sub 10%.