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USD/TRY Moves Below 8.40, Downside Supports Looking Sticky Pre-Jackson Hole

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades 0.07% higher this morning, in line with a retracement higher in the BBDXY.
  • USD/TRY continued to push lower in yesterday's session, breaching 8.40 support amid slightly more tentative risk conditions.
  • Price action is now approaching the July/August lows, and supports are starting to look stickier to the downside with many analysts concerned about the CBRT's next move in September, should inflation tick higher above the one-week repo.
  • For today, broad risk sentiment will continue to drive the pair as we draw closer to the Jackson Hole Symposium.
  • Markets will be focused on potential taper details and the Fed's assessment of the delta variant in terms of policy – but uncertainty around the meeting is relatively high.
  • News that Turkey may be removed from the UK's red list in the near-term is good news, but may come a bit late in terms of drawing maximum tourist flows.
  • Downside momentum in USD/TRY appears to be slowing slightly ahead of major supports in the 8.40-8.28 region but remains short of oversold territory.
  • Intraday Sup1: 8.3649, Sup2: 8.3304, Res1: 8.4021, Res2: 8.4533
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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