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USD/TRY Pulls Back from 14.00, Medium-Term Risks Skewed to the Upside

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades +1.42% higher this morning, paring a portion of yesterday’s risk-on fuelled move lower.
  • Moves to require exporters to convert 25% of revenues to TRY and discounted loans from Halkbank add to the long list of measures Erdogan is adding to the economy to avoid hiking rates.
  • However, both contribute to more complicated policy and the latter to credit impulse pressures, which are also expected to rise with the FX-linked deposit scheme and inflation in turn.
  • Yesterday’s CPI print saw sell-side analysts reiterate expectations that Erdogan’s new measures are unlikely to stabilize the currency in the medium to longer term as economic problems continue to mount for Turkey.
  • Turkish assets should continue to trade on their own for now as markets react to constant policy tweaks from Erdogan, but also remain vulnerable to a tightening in external factors in 2022.
  • A move through 13.50 resistance opens up yesterday’s high at 13.956 as the next short-term objective. Intraday Sup1: 12.9096, Sup2: 12.6235, Res1: 13.50, Res2: 13.956
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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