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USD/TRY Retests 8.4851 as Erdogan-Biden Meeting Falls Short Of Expectations

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades a fraction lower at the open having lifted back towards 8.4851 resistance after a deal on S-400s failed to materialise in the Biden-Erdogan meeting.
  • This was broadly in line with what we expected from the meeting with an outright deal on S-400s/F-35 programme admission in their first encounter being somewhat overly ambitious.
  • While Biden did not take Erdogan to task on aggressive regional behaviour and human rights issues, he did not scramble to let Turkey off the CAATSA sanctions hook – resulting in an almost ambivalent stance overall.
  • Nevertheless, both leaders said that the meeting was productive and that both teams would continue discussions, leaving the door open to future negotiations.
  • Talks between Greece and Turkey seemed positive, but may have been part of trying to soften the US approach, given the US' recent support for Greece in the East Med.
  • USD/TRY predictably moved higher after the disappointing meeting, but failed to breach the 8.50 handle.
  • With the NATO meeting in the rear-view mirror, markets will focus on the Fed & CBRT meeting where Kavcioglu is expected to deliver a market stabiliser meeting to win back some credibility by holding rates steady, while nodding to recent downside surprises in inflation without sounding too dovish. Intraday Sup1: 8.4397, Sup2: 8.3984, Res1: 8.4851, Res2: 8.5419
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Markets NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Markets NewsHomepage

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