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Free AccessUSD/TRY: Risk Premia Compress Ahead of Busy Week of Data
- USD/TRY trades slightly higher at the open, hovering around 8.2493 support against a mixed risk backdrop out of APAC.
- Local risk premia seen to be declining somewhat at the start of the week following Thursday's CBRT, with the 5Y CDS taking out the 400 levels and entering the Agbal-induced breakout gap (starting at 306), but remains elevated as investor confidence in the CBRT remains low.
- With the CBRT in the rear-view mirror, the weekly focus shifts back to local stories and data – with unemployment, industrial production, retail sales, CBRT minutes and current account metrics coming early in the week.
- Markets remains concerned that the widening CA deficit (exp at 3.80bn vs 2.16bn) will continue to weigh on TRY sentiment over the medium to longer-term.
- From Wed-Fri, markets will be driven primarily by key US data.
- Sell-side remains mostly neutral to bearish on TRY prospects in the near-term, despite the recent CBRT hold on policy- with fair value models still placing USD/TRY closer to the 9.00 level.
- Intraday Sup1: 8.2251, Sup2: 8.2046, Res1: 8.3006, Res2: 8.3319
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.