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VIEW: ASB Looking For Higher Peak In OCR


Coming up in the Asia-Pac session on Thursday:


Retains Bear Cycle


Carry-Over Weakness for Bonds


Bullish Price Sequence

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  • USD/TRY trades -0.06% lower this morning, in line with a marginally weaker BBDXY. The cross fell -0.68% in yesterday's session as buying pressure from the CBRT's surprise cut faded slightly, with price action failing to break out above 8.90.
  • The CBRT Governor distanced himself from allegations of Erdogan influence on interest rates this morning, rather interestingly questioning TRY weakness and the rise in Turkey's risk premium following the surprise -100bp cut broadly against market conditions.
  • While the current account deficit is expected to narrow in the coming months, TRY deposits seem unlikely to rise at this juncture with accelerated dollarization expected as a result of the dovish pivot.
  • Nevertheless, comments about boosting FX reserves and addressing food prices are positive, but will need to be proven to offset the elevated levels of investor scepticism.
  • With no data on the agenda for today, the cross will likely track global risk sentiment.
  • Momentum still remains to the upside, despite having reaches overbought levels on the RSI and will need to clear 8.90 to take the next leg higher to 9.00.
  • Intraday Sup1: 8.80017, Sup2: 8.7484, Res1: 8.90, Res2: 9.00