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USD/TRY Treads Water Within its Range, Local Data In Focus

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades +0.13% higher this morning, treading water above the 13.50 handle as sideways trading continues.
  • Energy protests over the weekend underscored the gravity of the price pressures facing Turks, adding to frustrations with the Erdogan government, despite the currency’s recent bout of relative stability.
  • Unemployment, current account & industrial production data will be the primary focus for the week with parliament going into recess until 15 Feb due to spiralling covid-19 cases.
  • US inflation will be the big-ticket item for international markets following Friday’s notable upside surprise in NFP data – reaffirming the Fed’s current hawkish stance as the March meeting approaches.
  • USD/TRY remains pegged within the 13.30-13.6614 range, awaiting a breakout in either direction for a more decisive near-term direction.
  • Turkey’s wide negative real yields, however, make TRY acutely vulnerable to a tightening external backdrop with trade deficits and a narrowing current account adding depreciation pressures to the currency for a gloomy medium-term outlook.
  • Intraday Sup1: 13.5087, Sup2: 13.4262, Res1: 13.6344, Res2: 13.6614
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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