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NBP Shifting Towards a November Hike?


Gilt/Bund spread is wider in early trade


Opening calls

By Kevin Kastner
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The USDA's monthly WASDE report showed that 
wheat area planted for 2017/18 was unrevised at 46.0 million acres, 
while area harvested was also unrevised, holding at 37.6 million acres, 
both below the levels in 2016/17, according to data released Thursday. 
     Wheat production is estimated to be 1.741 billion bushels in 
2017/18, unrevised from the previous estimate and down significantly 
from the 2.309 billion bushel production estimate for 2016/17. The USDA 
estimated yield per acre for wheat at 46.3 bushels for 2017/18, the same 
as in the previous estimate and well below the 52.7 bushels per acre in 
     Imports of wheat are expected to be stronger in the coming year, 
with 150 million bushels expected in 2017/18, unrevised from the October 
estimate and well ahead of the 118 million bushels imported in 2016/17. 
     Still, the supply of wheat is expected to be well below 2016/17 
levels, even with a stronger starting point in the year from beginning 
stocks. The USDA sees total wheat supply for 2017/18 at 3.071 billion 
bushels, the same as in October and down sharply from 3.402 billion in 
     On the demand side, domestic use is seen at an unrevised 1.136 
billion bushels for 2017/18, down from 1.167 billion bushels in 2016/17. 
The projection for wheat exports is for 1.000 billion bushels for 
2017/18, revised up from 975 million in the previous estimate, but down 
from 1.055 billion bushels in 2016/17. As a result, total use is 
expected to fall to 2.136 billion bushels in 2017/18 from 2.222 billion 
bushels in 2016/17. 
     As a result of the small upward revision to supply and no revision 
to demand, ending stocks were revised down to 935 million bushels for 
the end of 2017/18, off sharply from 1.181 billion at the end of 
     The 2017/18 average price per bushel of wheat is seen at 
$4.40-$4.80, unrevised from the October estimate. The average price was 
$3.89 in 2016/17. 
     Separately, the corn area harvested projection for 2017/18 was 
unrevised at 83.1 million acres, down from 86.7 million acres in 
2016/17. The estimate for total corn supply is 16.922 billion bushels in 
2017/18, revised up from 16.625 billion bushels in the previous estimate 
but still slightly below the 16.942 billion bushels estimated for 
     The soybean area harvested projection was unrevised at 89.5 
billion, up significantly from 82.7 million acres in 2016/17. The 
estimate for total soybean supply now stands at 4.752 billion bushels, 
down from 4.757 billion bushels in the previous estimate, but well above 
the 4.515 billion bushels in 2016/17. 
     Also released, the November Citrus Forecast Report showed that the 
2017/18 forecast for Florida all orange production was revised down to 
50.0 million boxes from 54.0 million boxes in the October estimate. The 
estimate is down sharply from 68.8 million boxes in 2016/17 and is the 
lowest since the 1945/46 season. 
     ** MNI Washington Bureau (202) 371-2121 **