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USDBRL May Focus On Lower Bound Of Short Term Range

BRAZIL
  • USDBRL has been consolidating between 4.95-5.00 over the past week and the more benign risk backdrop today may prompt some pressure on the lower bound, a key resistance that was broken last week. More notable initial support lies at 4.9041, the 20-day EMA.
  • Iron ore rose 3% in Singapore, up for a fourth day on signs demand from Chinese steel mills may be improving ahead of an expected pick-up in construction in September and October. This may provide an additional tailwind for the Real, combined with the lower US yields and corresponding positive starts for emerging market peers on Tuesday.
  • July tax collection is the only significant data to be released in Brazil Tuesday. On the speaker schedule, markets may focus on what BCB board member, Gabriel Galipolo, might say when attending a meeting at the Fiesp’s Superior Council of Economy (1400BST/0900ET). BCB Chief Campos Neto also grants a lecture at a Santander event (1300BST/0800ET)
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