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USDBRL Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

BRAZIL
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  • USDBRL has traded moderately lower in recent sessions as the latest political noise around Petrobras has gradually faded. Support around the 50-day EMA, at 5.0845, has recently been pierced. A clear breach would open 4.9984, the Apr 10 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 5.1969, the Apr 30 high.
  • BBVA are still looking for opportunities to scale into BRL longs on similar noise-driven selloffs but would prefer to enter near 5.20 as and when the opportunities arise. In their view, below the 5.10-5.00 range should continue to feel heavier and more prone to profit-taking.
  • Today, BCB President Roberto Campos Neto will attend the bank’s 2nd annual conference in Brasilia at 1330BST(0830ET). On the data front, weekly FIPE CPI rose 0.12% m/m in the week ending May 15, following a 0.20% increase the previous week. No other macro data are due today, with attention turning to the BCB Focus survey and April current account data due next week.
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  • USDBRL has traded moderately lower in recent sessions as the latest political noise around Petrobras has gradually faded. Support around the 50-day EMA, at 5.0845, has recently been pierced. A clear breach would open 4.9984, the Apr 10 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 5.1969, the Apr 30 high.
  • BBVA are still looking for opportunities to scale into BRL longs on similar noise-driven selloffs but would prefer to enter near 5.20 as and when the opportunities arise. In their view, below the 5.10-5.00 range should continue to feel heavier and more prone to profit-taking.
  • Today, BCB President Roberto Campos Neto will attend the bank’s 2nd annual conference in Brasilia at 1330BST(0830ET). On the data front, weekly FIPE CPI rose 0.12% m/m in the week ending May 15, following a 0.20% increase the previous week. No other macro data are due today, with attention turning to the BCB Focus survey and April current account data due next week.