Free Trial

USDCAD Holding Drift Higher Ahead Of CPI and US Retail Sales, Stubbornly Large CAD Net Shorts

CANADA
  • USDCAD holds yesterday’s drift higher, with an added tailwind from WTI futures falling back closer to $80/bbl for the first time since mid-June.
  • Yesterday’s BoC surveys helped test and ultimately clear resistance at 1.3666 (50-day EMA), with the pair since hitting 1.3695 overnight. Next resistance is seen at 1.3755 (Jul 2 high) before 1.3792 (Jun 11 high) whilst support is seen at a key 1.3590 (May 16 low).
  • There’s a solid $910m at 1.3600 expiring today but also heavy cumulative expiry of $2.0bn through 1.3800-1.3810.
  • CAD CPI comes at 0830ET (preview here) along with cross currents from US retail sales and import prices.
  • CAD net shorts are still historically elevated in futures space at least (CFTC data has seen net shorts worth 42-46% of open interest ever since the BoC cut in June), which could bias greater reaction in the event of a hawkish CPI print in the near-term.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.