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USDCAD Little Changed As Retail Sales Disappoint In March But With Flash April Hope

CANADA
  • USDCAD is little changed at 1.3712 after mixed Canadian retail sales and US durable goods (beat in April but with offsetting downward revisions).
  • It holds a tentative decline away from yesterday’s high of 1.3744 which stopped just short of 1.3748 (Fibo retracement of Apr 16-May 16 bear leg) after which lies a more notable 1.3785 (Apr 30 high).
  • Retail sales were close to expectations in March at -0.2% M/M (cons -0.1, advance 0.0) but ex autos disappointed (-0.6% after -0.2%) as did core sales (-0.6% after +0.1%).
  • Overall volumes offered a similar picture to those trimmed metrics, falling -0.4% M/M. It followed some mixed revisions (upward in Feb, downward in Jan), with the 3m/3M trend rate easing to 1.1% annualized for its softest since Oct.
  • However, helping to largely offset the March gloom, the April advance estimate is indicated at a 0.7% M/M increase, which if realized would be the strongest nominal increase since September.
  • Further, and in a separate release, manufacturing sales were also indicated to bounce a reasonable 1.2% after the -2.1% in March.
  • All together, the releases have done little to change BoC pricing which continues to sit at circa 16bps of cuts for next month as broadly seen since Tuesday's CPI.
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