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USDCAD Remarkably Steady Following Hawkish BoC

CANADA
  • USDCAD seeing a modest rise on the latest step down in equities but remains remarkably steady today, up just +0.1% at 1.2584.
  • A further hawkish nudge from Dep Gov Beaudry yesterday, noting “more forcefully” can be either a higher terminal rate (with increased risk of going to the top of the 2-3% neutral range or above) or larger than 50bp hikes, sees CAD lead other majors.
  • It earlier dipped below 1.2562 (76.4% retrace of Apr5-May12 uptrend), a clear breach of which would strengthen current bearish conditions and open support at 1.2459 (Apr 21 low). Resistance meanwhile is eyed at 1.2686 (Jun 2 high).
  • Further moves lower are however likely conditional on improved risk sentiment. Gov Macklem is unlikely to be able to build on existing hawkishness when speaking on Jun 9 after the Financial System Review, leaving scope for some unwinding of the recent decline in USDCAD.

Source: Bloomberg

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