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CHINA YUAN: USDCNH continues to trade at the upper end of its recent range with
the range remaining intact even amid a surge in the dollar against developed
market FX. This has seen EURCNH drop back to test support just ahead of the 8.0
level, which for now appears to be holding.
- The 21-day rolling correlation between USDCNH and the DXY has dropped back to
zero as the yuan decouples from DM FX. The yuan's correlation with EM FX has
also fallen sharply. The currency appears to be caught between an EM FX recovery
and renewed DM FX weakness.
- The Chinese equity market is likely to be crucial in determining the next
major move in USDCNH, with continued equity gains strengthening the yuan's case.